一 | Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 财联社8月26日讯（编辑 杨斌） 监管对银行业合规的惩戒力度持续加码。
二 | 财联社梳理今年银行罚单数据发现，银行罚单整体数量有所下降，但大额罚没案件明显增多，2026年以来500万元以上大额罚单已达21张，千万级罚单已出现多起，罚没总规模逼近 13 亿元。
三 | 罚单整体呈现“数量下降、金额上升”的特征，且“双罚”常态化。 业内分析指出，监管的处罚愈加精准，要求银行穿透式治理合规方面的深层次缺陷。 渤海银行领5015万罚单，事涉贷款、票据、理财业务 国家金融监管总局近日公示一批行政处罚信息：渤海银行因“相关贷款、票据、理财业务不审慎等”被罚款5015万元，三名责任人被警告并罚款共计22万元。
四 | 全资理财子公司渤银理财因“投资运作不规范、信息披露不准确等”被罚1230万元，两名责任人被警告并罚款共计11万元。母子公司合计罚没6245万元，处罚落实“双罚制”，机构与个人双重追责。 业内分析指出，贷款、票据、理财是商业银行最核心、体量最大、风险最高的三大板块，三项业务同时出现合规问题说明该行风控体系、制度执行、内部监督亟待加强。
五 | 渤海银行及其分支机构今年已多次收到监管处罚。2月，武汉分行因流动资金贷款贷前调查和贷后管理不尽职、融资租赁保理业务不审慎被罚175万元；4月，深圳前海分行因贷款“三查”不尽职、并购贷款审查不到位、集团授信管理不到位、资产分类不真实等被罚290万元；5月，郑州分行因发放无实际用途存单质押贷款虚增业务规模、贷款“三查”不到位、滚动开票虚增业务规模等多项违规行为被罚350万元。 渤海银行尚未发布2026年半年报，从年报数据看，渤海银行2025年实现营收259.70亿元，同比增长1.92%；实现净利润54.98亿元，同比增长4.61%。2025年末，渤海银行不良贷款率1.66%，环比下降0.1个百分点，但在股份制银行中处于较高水平。 今年银行大额罚单已超20张，监管处罚愈发精准 截至8月26日，金融监管总局本次对渤海银行开出的罚单，为今年银行机构被罚金额最大的一单。
六 | 财联社据企业预警通数据统计，2026年至今，央行、金融监管总局及其派出机构、外汇局对银行机构开出的单笔罚没金额超500万元的大额罚单共21张，涉及19家银行总行，罚没合计约2.70亿元。 图：2026年至今银行收到的500万元以上罚单 进一步来看，年内单笔超千万元的罚单共6张。除渤海银行外，还涉及建设银行、浦发银行、农业银行、中信银行及杭州联合农商银行。 同样是在8月，农业银行上海分行因贷款违反审慎经营规则、票据业务管理不到位等事由，收到金融监管总局上海监管局1210万元的罚单。 2月12日，央行对建设银行、浦发银行开出超4000万元罚单，事由均涉及客户尽职调查、可疑交易监测等反洗钱环节，并叠加征信、支付结算、账户管理等违规，单日合计罚没超8600万元，成为上半年最具标志性的银行处罚案件。反洗钱合规——尤其是客户身份识别、可疑交易报告、客户资料保存等环节，成为监管执法的“重中之重”。
七 | 另外，中信银行和杭州联合农商银行分别因为信用卡业务违规和数据报表报送不规范的原因，收到千万以上的罚单。 按银行类型看，股份制银行收到的大额罚单（下专指500万元以上的罚单）最重——5张罚单合计约1.17亿元。国有银行6张、罚没约8393万元；城商行6张、罚没约4090万元；农商行3张、罚没2260万元。 从违规领域看，信贷业务仍是罚单高发区，多数大额罚单涉及贷款“三查”、票据融资、信贷资产质量等环节违规。农业银行年内已收到两张大额罚单，均与信贷相关。 整体来看，2026年银行监管处罚延续高压态势。据企业预警通统计，一季度监管对银行机构及从业人员开出罚单1076张、罚没6.32亿元；二季度655张、罚没3.98亿元；7月262张、罚没1.40亿元。
八 | 今年罚单合计已达2129张，罚没约12.96亿元。
九 | 与去年同期相比，今年银行罚单呈现“张数减少、金额增加”的特点。在大额罚单上，去年同期500万元以上的罚单有17张，千万以上有6张，但最高金额不足3000万元。此外，“双罚制”常态化，即一旦发生违规，机构与相关责任人员都要承担责任。 某金融业分析师指出，大额处罚更加集中、强调“追责到人”，均显示监管的处罚愈加精准。监管从“发现违规”，逐步导向“追溯违规产生的原因”，要求银行穿透式治理合规方面的深层次缺陷。责任编辑：曹睿潼。
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